Modeling Forest Insects
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| (Back row, from left) Tom Swetnam, Barry Cooke, William Godsoe, Andrew Liebhold, Christina Cobbold, Patrick James, Barbara Bentz (Front row, from left) Mark Lewis, Kyle Haynes, Josie Hughes, Sharon Bewick, Xi Yang, Mario Pineda-Krch, Greg Dwyer |
NIMBioS Working Group: Modeling Forest Insects
Topic: Synthesizing predictive modeling of forest insect dynamics across spatial and temporal scales
Organizers: Mario Pineda-Krch and Mark Lewis (Centre for Mathematical Biology, Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Canada) and Andrew Liebhold (Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service)
Meeting dates: February 22-26, 2010; October 18-21, 2010
Project summary: In many parts of the world forests are experiencing an unprecedented onslaught of outbreaks by destructive forest insects, e.g. massive pine beetle outbreaks and continuing large scale range expansions of Gypsy moth in North America and Europe. There is a long history of quantitative modeling of forest pests aimed at increasing our ability to predict outbreaks. This working group will bring together an inter-disciplinary group of researchers with expertise in quantitative approaches for studying forest insect pest populations, global climate change scenarios, forest fire dynamics, and evolutionary dynamics of antagonistic ecological interactions. The aim of the working group is to synthesize cutting edge predictive modeling approaches using several case studies for which data on historical outbreaks are available. We have identified a group of leading researchers engaged in developing an understanding of the complex ecological, evolutionary, and environmental processes governing the dynamics of forest insect pest. Using the resources at NIMBioS, we plan to bring these experts together to advance our forest insect population modeling capabilities.
Four meetings are planned, each focusing on a specific theme with invited thematic experts. The meetings will focus on synergistic activities promoting the synthesis of existing quantitative approaches as well as the development of novel modeling approaches. Mathematical, statistical, and computational methods will be used and implemented using case studies based on historical outbreak data of e.g. mountain pine beetle, gypsy moth.
NIMBioS Working Group on Modeling Forest Insects:
Summary of Meeting 1, February 22-26, 2010
Participants: Barbara Bentz (USDA Forest Service); Sharon Bewick (NIMBioS); Christina Cobbold (Univ. of Glasgow); Barry Cooke (Canadian Forest Service); Greg Dwyer (Univ. of Chicago); William Godsoe (NIMBioS); Kyle Haynes (Univ. of Virginia); Josie Hughes (Univ. of Toronto); Patric James (Univ. of Alberta); Mark Lewis (Univ. of Alberta); Andrew Liebhold (USDA Forest Service); Mario Pineda-Krch (Univ. of Alberta); Tom Swetnam (Univ. of Arizona); Xi Yang (Cornell Univ.)
During the first meeting, key research needs to improve our understanding of the dynamics and management of forest insect pests, particularly in light anthropomorphic environmental changes such as climate change and habitat fragmentation, were identified. Sub-groups were formed to address one or several inter-related questions, including the role of environmental factors and spatial structure in driving forest insect dynamics, the role of ecological interactions resulting in or arising from insect outbreaks, and how to optimally predict and control outbreaks. Results from each subgroup's work will be published in peer-reviewed publications. The discussions during the first meeting and the ideas that emerged have provided a solid foundation for the future work of the group. The next meeting is scheduled for October 2010.
NIMBioS Working Groups are chosen to focus on major scientific questions at the interface between biology and mathematics. NIMBioS is particularly interested in questions that integrate diverse fields, require synthesis at multiple scales, and/or make use of or require development of new mathematical/computational approaches. NIMBioS Working Groups are relatively small (10-12 participants, with a maximum of 15), focus on a well-defined topic, and have well-defined goals and metrics of success. Working Groups will typically meet 2-4 times over a two-year period, with each meeting lasting 3-5 days; however, the number of participants, number of meetings, and duration of each meeting is flexible, depending on the needs and goals of the Group.
