NIMBioS Investigative Workshop
Mathematical Modeling of Wildlife and Virus Zoonoses
Topic: Mathematical Modeling of Wildlife and Virus Zoonoses
Meeting dates: Nov 8-10, 2010
Organizers:
Colleen B. Jonsson, Dept. of Microbiology, Center for Predictive Medicine, Univ. of Louisville, Louisville, Kentucky
Linda J. S. Allen, Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock
Pauline van den Driessche, Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, Univ. of Victoria
| Agenda (PDF) | Participants | Evaluation report (PDF) |
Objectives: The focus of the workshop was to define, discuss, and develop approaches to collaboratively address critical gaps that remain in mathematical modeling of the ecology and natural history of zoonotic viruses, how they are maintained in their reservoirs, the processes and mechanisms that lead to transmission, host switching, and molecular events that lead to transfer and adaptation to a new host and post-transfer adaptation. Importantly, modeling efforts are essential to the discovery of new ecological paradigms and true understanding of the nature of episodic zoonotic epidemics or outbreaks such as those caused by RNA viruses, Ebola virus, SARS CoV, Nipah virus, and Machupo virus. By bringing together experts in mathematical models in conjunction with those engaged in experimental analyses of emerging viruses, the workshop provided a venue to build collaborative efforts to integrate approaches that would result in the interpretation of ecological trends in the spread of zoonotic diseases, provide greater understanding of underlying causes of outbreaks, and provide guidelines for their control and prevention.
Summary Report. The investigative workshop focused on the following three topics of mathematical modeling of wildlife and viral zoonoses:
- Topic I - modeling of interhost transmission and host switching;
- Topic II - maintaining microbes in their reservoirs;
- Topic III - molecular events that lead to transfer and adaptation.
Through lectures, poster presentations, and working group discussions by experimentalists and modelers, important factors in modeling wildlife and viral zoonoses were identified. In topic I, factors important to interhost transmission and host switching that were identified included GIS/climate data, human and reservoir behavior change and contact networks, evolutionary processes of the pathogen and the host, variability in susceptibility of host, fitness of reservoir, spatial dynamics, and the effects of intervention strategies. In topic II, specific host factors influencing the epidemiology of the virus were divided into four categories: contact/exposure, cellular entry, productive viral infection, and transmission. Issues important in modeling were identified in each of these categories. Under topic III, discussions centered on incorporating the quasispecies concept into models of intraspecies adaptation and interspecies spillover and adaptation. New collaborations were initiated, and future working groups discussed.
NIMBioS Investigative Workshops focus on broad topics or a set of related topics, summarizing/synthesizing the state of the art and identifying future directions. Organizers and key invited researchers make up half the 30-40 participants in a workshop, and the remaining 15-20 participants are filled through open application from the scientific community. Open applicants selected to attend are notified by NIMBioS within two weeks of the application deadline. Investigative Workshops have the potential for leading to one or more future Working Groups. Individuals with a strong interest in the topic, including post-docs and graduate students, are encouraged to apply. If needed, NIMBioS can provide support (travel, meals, lodging) for Workshop attendees.
