NIMBioS Investigative Workshop: Modeling Reef Ecosystems
Topic:
Modeling sustainability of coral reef ecosystem services under multiple interacting stressors
Meeting dates: July 21-23, 2010
Organizers: Susan Harrell Yee (U.S. EPA, Gulf Ecology Division); Jerald S. Ault (University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science)
Objectives: Coral reef ecosystems are highly valued, but threatened by regional human population growth and serial over-exploitation. Human activities in the watershed and coastal zones must be dramatically altered to eliminate threats, but scientific and management efforts are often narrowly defined, making it challenging to predict the potential repercussions of decisions within a complex ecosystem under threat from multiple interacting stressors. This workshop would seek to evaluate the potential for development of a comprehensive coral reef systems model that links multiple interacting environmental stressors (e.g., water quality (nutrients, contaminants, sedimentation), exploitation, episodic events (i.e., hurricanes), climate changes (water temperature and ocean acidification), and vessel groundings) to the state and dynamics of reef ecosystems (i.e., reef-building corals, reef fish, sponges, algae, invertebrates, seagrasses, mangroves) stretching from coastal bays to coral reefs. To maximize relevancy to decision makers, the modeled reef ecosystem should include those attributes linked to the provision of ecosystem services (sustainable fisheries, shoreline protection, biodiversity). A systems model could be used to evaluate the environmental conditions under which the reef ecosystem or key ecosystem services are sustainable. Risk analysis could be used to evaluate environmental stressors or biological processes which have the greatest potential for impacting reef ecosystems, and therefore may be high-value targets for management decisions or future research. Finally, a comprehensive systems model would have enormous value to decision makers as a decision support tool to ensure that critical relationships and potential interactions are not overlooked when evaluating consequences of alternative decisions.
Participants: Luis Alberto Acosta Moreno (Departmento de Biologia, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Columbia); Paul Armsworth (Dept. Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Univ. Tennessee); Stephen Ban (ARC Center of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies); David Bernard (Wicked Problems Tamed, MI); Sharon Bewick (NIMBioS); Michael Bode (Dept. of Botany, Univ. Melbourne); R. Stephen Cantrell (Dept. of Mathematics, Univ. Miami); Megan Donahue (Dept. of Zoology, Univ. Hawaii); Erik Franklin (Dept. of Zoology, Univ. Hawaii); Tak Fung (School of Biological Sciences, Queen’s Univ.); Felimon Gayanilo (Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Univ. Miami); Alan Hastings (Dept. of Environmental Science and Policy, Univ. California Davis); Clifford Hearn (Working Science Consultancies, FL); Eric Hochberg (Oceanographic Center, Nova Southeastern Univ.); Ali Hudon (Oceanographic Center, Nova Southeastern Univ.); Craig Johnson (School of Zoology, Univ. of Tasmania); Cheryl Knowland (School of Biological Sciences, Univ. Liverpool); Semen Koksal (Dept. of Mathematics, Florida Institute Tech); Suzanne Lenhart (Mathematics Dept., Univ. Tennessee/NIMBioS); Joseph Maina (Dept. of Biological Sciences, Macquarie Univ.); Steven McMurray (Dept. of Biology and Marine Biology, Univ. North Carolina); Jessica Melbourne-Thomas (School of Zoology, Univ. Tasmania); Erinn Muller (Dept. of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute Tech); Rachael Miller Neilan (Dept. of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State Univ.); Jennifer O’Leary (NCEAS); Carlos Ruiz Sebastian (Wildlife Conservation Society, Kenya); Jim Sanchirico (Dept. of Environmental Science and Policy, Univ. California Davis); Matthew Spencer (School of Environmental Sciences, Univ. Liverpool); Carl Toews (Dept. of Mathematics, Duquesne Univ.); Howie Weiss (School of Mathematics, Georgia Tech); Elizabeth Widman (Systems Biology, Univ. Warwick); Laith Yakob (School of Biological Sciences, Univ. Queensland); Susan Yee (United States Environmental Protection Agency); Aletta Yniguez (Univ. Philippines-Diliman); Tracy Ziegler (National Park Service, FL).
Summary Report on the NIMBioS Investigative Workshop: Modeling Reef Ecosystems, July 21-23, 2010
Key variables, processes, endpoints and methods to improve and integrate existing reef ecosystem models were evaluated so that they are more relevant to decision-makers over a range of scales, decision scenarios or locations. Participants represented diverse expertise including applied and theoretical mathematics, coral reef and fisheries modeling, and reef management. Relevant ecosystem services endpoints in terms of observable metrics were identified, as well as the corresponding reef attributes, processes, and stressors needing to be modeled. Mathematical approaches for quantifying tipping points, uncertainty in outcomes, and natural changes in the system versus those related to external pressures, all issues of high concern to reef management, were discussed. The group will write a synthesis paper of the workshop discussion. Two potential working groups formed: one to begin developing reef ecosystem models that incorporate multiple stressors, and a second to examine the appropriate time-scales involved in the decision processes.
NIMBioS Investigative Workshops involve 30-40 participants, focus on a broad topic or a set of related topics, attempt to summarize/synthesize the state of the art and identify future directions, and have potential for leading to one or more future
