In conjunction with the interdisciplinary activities of the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS), a seminar series on topics in mathematical biology will be hosted at NIMBioS every other Tuesday at 3:30 p.m. (unless otherwise noted) in the NIMBioS Lecture Hall on the 4th floor of 1534 White Ave., Suite 400. Seminar speakers will focus on their research initiatives at the interface of mathematics and many areas of the life sciences. Light refreshments will be served beginning 30 minutes before each talk.
Time/Date: Tuesday, September 13, 2011, 3:30 p.m.*
Location: Room 403, Blount Hall, 1534 White Ave., Suite 400
Speaker: Alan Hastings, Environmental Science and Policy, Univ. of California Davis.
Topic: Timescales, multiple stable points, and tipping points
Abstract: I will start with some simple models for dynamics of coral reefs (joint work with Pete Mumby and Julie Blackwood) that provide illustrations of the ideas of multiple stable points and the possibility of changes in system dynamics. Models will illustrate issues of "controlling" the system to have it remain or be restored to a desirable state. These models will illustrate issues of time scales. I will then discuss several more abstract models that illustrate the difficulty of obtaining early warning signs for these regime shifts (work with Derin Wysham). I will finish by discussing recent work with Carl Boettiger on the statistical issues of detecting early warning signals for regime shifts even in the cases where they would be theoretically expected.
*Join us for refreshments in the NIMBioS Lobby on the 4th floor at 3 p.m.
Seminar Flyer (pdf)